The Corbin Burnes signing by the Diamondbacks is a fascinating development, not just for what it means for Arizona, but also for what it signals about the Orioles and their approach to roster construction under Mike Elias.
Arizona’s Bold Move
– Contract Structure: Burnes’ deal at $35 million per year over six years, with an opt-out after 2026, shows Arizona’s willingness to pay a premium for top-tier pitching. While the shorter term limits long-term risk, it’s still a bold commitment for a team with significant financial uncertainty, particularly with their local TV revenue in flux.
– Revenue Gamble: Arizona’s aggressive spending, despite diminished TV revenue, indicates they’re banking on other revenue streams—attendance, playoff runs, and potentially a renegotiated media deal—to sustain their payroll. Surpassing the $200 million CBT threshold again shows they’re serious about competing in a tough NL West.
Impact on the Orioles
The Orioles now face increased scrutiny for their unwillingness to engage in the top tier of free agency, especially for starting pitching. Burnes would have been an ideal fit for Baltimore, offering a frontline ace to complement their young, talented core. However, the Orioles’ hesitance reflects a deeper philosophical divide:
1. Risk Aversion: Burnes’ deal, while lucrative, is shorter than Fried’s, limiting long-term exposure. Yet Baltimore’s front office under Elias has consistently avoided major free-agent spending, preferring to build internally and through value acquisitions. This approach has yielded results, but fans are understandably frustrated by the lack of big-name additions.
2. Missed Opportunity: With one of the strongest young cores in MLB—Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and others—the Orioles are in a prime position to contend. Supplementing that core with a proven ace like Burnes could elevate them from playoff hopefuls to legitimate World Series contenders.
3. Perception Problem: If mid-market teams like Arizona can justify spending big on free agents despite revenue challenges, the Orioles’ reluctance becomes harder to defend. Fans may start to question whether ownership is more focused on profitability than winning.
What’s Next for Baltimore?
– Internal Development: Elias may continue to rely on internal pitching prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. While promising, this strategy carries its own risks, as young arms often face growing pains and injury concerns.
– Mid-Tier Signings: Baltimore could pivot to the second tier of free agents, targeting players like Eduardo Rodriguez or Jordan Montgomery. While not as impactful as Burnes, these additions could still bolster the rotation.
– Trade Market: The Orioles have a wealth of prospects and young talent, making them well-positioned to explore trades for a controllable ace, such as Dylan Cease or Shane Bieber.
Ultimately, the Burnes signing underscores the Orioles’ cautious approach to free agency and raises legitimate questions about their willingness to spend when it matters most. If Baltimore fails to capitalize on their current window of contention, the frustration among fans will only grow louder.
